Sunday, December 01, 2013

IS THE GLASGOW HERALD PLAYING THE GAME WITH THE INDEPENDENCE DEBATE? READ THIS.


The snp/separatist/cybernats have been questioning the veracity of the polls which have consistently told us for over two years that the yes campaign is heading for humiliation. They have constructed a lie around the events surrounding the Holyrood election of 20 07 which the snp won. It goes like this “the polls got it wildly wrong in 20 07 and they will be wrong again in September 20 014”. There is a big lie and a small truth in their narrative, the small truth is that the polls can get it wrong and the yes camp could win but, the big lie is that the polls did not as they claim get it wrong in 20 07. As is often the case their story does not stack up and I took the trouble to check it out. Following an on line argument with an snp separatist who was trying to sell this nonsense there was the following exchange.

Me to him.--- Mr. **** The polls are very sophisticated and mainly accurate particularly when they have been showing a commanding lead for over 2 years. I am delighted with that and of course you would not like to be in the position of the No campaign would you?. You are clearly not worried about making a fool of yourself either are you?.

Mr. X. Replied. -----
"The polls are very sophisticated and mainly accurate " (Terry Kelly)
except when they are clearly absolutely completely utterly transparently fundamentally wrong, like the last time the people of Scotland were asked a political question.
Clutching at straws comes to mind.

I then sent the following.
I assume you are talking about the Holyrood election of May 5Th. 2007. If so this is an snp myth which has been constructed to try to cover up the hammering that the snp are getting in the polls now. The facts do not support your ridiculous claim that the polls were wrong, or as you so bullishly and foolishly put it "clearly absolutely completely utterly transparently fundamentally wrong" no fence sitting there eh?. If you don't want to accept what I am saying I can refer you to the following site. http://www.holyrood.com/2011/05/polls-apart/ 

Notwithstanding your rather fanciful claim about the accuracy of the polls I will assume that you have heard of IPSOS MORI who are probably one of the most famous pollsters of them all. The contact I have given you shows the following information from them based on those who were deemed 'certain to vote' in the Holyrood election on May 5Th. 2013. It is as follows.

Feb. 16Th. 2013 - 48 days before the election
snp 37% Labour 36%.

March 22Nd. 20 13 - 34 days later and 14 days before the election -
snp 45% - Labour 34% an snp lead of 11% and the result? An snp victory with a lead of 10% not bad eh?. 

I look forward to your reply.


Despite 4 attempts to have this printed the Herald still refuses to print it. I was advised that their refusal might be because they do not advertise other companies or ‘links’ to other sites. I then resubmitted the post minus the reference to IPSOS MORI and removed the link to the other site. They still did not print it!.  In terms of the referendum debate, I’m sure you will come to your own conclusion as to whether you can believe what the Glasgow Herald says.   

28 comments:

Dazed And Confused said...

If the Aussies still refuse to remove the British Queen, as albeit nominal figurehead, why would the people of Scotland elect a creature such as Alex Salmond to become their overlord and in his mind at least, "president elect"......

The Queen means little to me one way or the other, but having the choice of her as the figurehead of my Nation, instead of having to Kowtow to "President" Cameron or "President" Miliband fills me repulsion, just like it does it seems with my cousins down under....

Watching from afar here in England, if I gleaned my information solely from the SNP and the BBC (and God knows why the BBC support Salmond without question) Id be forgiven for thinking that Scottish independence was already a done deal, and the odious Salmond was "President" in waiting.....

Thankfully the truth is somewhat different, and Salmond will be humiliated when September comes..

Byeck said...

Tragedy hits Glasgow, people are killed. While decent folk pray and offer suppor, Kelly doesn't think it rates a mention

Kelly, you're a disgrace. And please don't accuse me of making political mileage out of this tragedy - the fact remains, you didn't even mention it, choosing instead to blog an interminable and mainly imcomprehensible rant against the Herald.

Renfrew surely deserves better.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

I agree, and I see no need for presidents or monarchs.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

I agree, and I see no need for presidents or monarchs.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Byeck said..Monday, December 02, 2013 9:47:00 am.

What is incomprehensible about my post?.

LisaRob said...

I completely agree with you Byeck. I wonder why folk like Kelly are even in their position. Does he realise there are people in his constituency that are Yes voters yet all they must read is his not so hidden hatred towards them as SNP or even like me, a longtime Labour voter still Labour but for an Indy Labour which is a great movement that the many Labour folk I know who are completely disgusted in the kind of folk in Labour now. Kelly still doesnt have the decency to leave his bitchiness against SNP/Salmond and all Yes voters and give the period of mourning a wee bit longer that a few days. Shame in you Kelly!

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

The comments sent to me regarding the Clutha accident are revolting. If you were in my ward I would not want your vote, I'm not fooled by you.

Byeck said...

Kelly @ 8.34
It's incomprehensible that you should think the Herald is going to treat you any differently to the way you treat others, i.e. When they get bored, or in your case, when you get stuck for answers, you simply don't publish the comment.

Now, you 'see no need for Presidents or Monarchs.' Where, then, do you stand on democracy, Terry, you know, that 'One man, one vote' system, that elevated you to Councillor and made Obama President?

Anonymous said...

Hi Terry It,s me Mr X, what is this nonsense you have blogged, I was not referring to 2007,I was referring to the last time the people of Scotland were asked a political question which was the scottish parliament elections in 2011, which the SNP won with an overall majority in a system designed for that not to be possible,my point being that the pollsters got it spectacularly wrong then and will again next september because in march 2011 labour held a 15% lead over the snp in the TNS-brmb poll, a 9% lead in a you gov poll and a 6% lead in a mail on sunday poll and anyway to prove your point you have quoted figures from 2013, are you drunk?

I fully expect you not to publish this since it makes you out to be a bumbling idiot but do keep on crying about censorship at the Herald.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Byeck said...
Kelly @ 8.34Tuesday, December 03, 2013 8:24:00 pm.

You more than anyone know that I print everything that I possibly can. you for instance have had 2 or possibly 3 posts deleted over quite a few years.

Monarchs are not elected and presidents are not needed. Neither are a prerequisite for a democratic country.
You sound tired and feeble.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous said...Wednesday, December 04, 2013 9:38:00.

I was also referring to 20 11 and I wrote 2007 by mistake. Everything I said was true and can be checked out by searching this site. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2776/Scottish-Public-Opinion-Monitor-April-2011.aspx this is information from IPSOS MORI (have you heard of them?) The snp have constructed a tissue of lies to try to get people to believe that the polls were wrong, this site proves you are liars and the polls will get it right this time as well.

You are not only liars you are stupid as well for thinking the Scottish people can be fooled as easily as this, you are beneath contempt, go and read it.

Anonymous said...

Terry
It's Mr X again, I take it your reference to 2013 polls was also a "mistake" just riddled with them aren't you. I notice you cant deny the facts I presented you with, you choose to pin all your bluster on one poll, I have cited 3 different polls,so who is it that is being economic with the truth,it's the usual labour party tactic of taking a tiny part of a truth and suggesting it is the whole. The Ipsos mori poll was remarkable in that it was the only one to give the SNP any lead at all.
and by the bye,I have cancelled my subscription to the Herald because they refused to allow me to point out the lies and smears that you tried to perpetuate with your infantile mistake ridden abusive ramblings.
I actually partly agree with you that they are selective on what they allow, although I don't think it is on yes/no lines.Whatever their obscure reasoning I won't post on a site which moderates my comments without valid reason. So you are free to post there without fear of me exposing your nonsense.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous - Mr. X said...Wednesday, December 04, 2013 3:44:00 pm Here are the facts.

The following polling organisations were involved in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections. You Gove – Panel Base – Scottish Opinion – IPSOS MORI and TNS-BMRB.

On March 28th 2007 the parties stood at snp 37% V Labour 37%. Between then and May 4th. 2007 The day before the election, 37 days later there were 7 more polls published by these companies all giving the snp a clear lead. These facts can be verified by this Link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
Like the rest of the snp separatist/cybernat goons Mr. X, you are a liar and an idiot, you are prepared to cheat, lie and spin to deceive the Scottish voters to try to sew doubt in their minds about the accuracy of the referendum pollstoday. This is a tactic to persuade them that the polls which have been rock steady for over 2 years and have continually shown a huge No vote lead cannot be trusted. The truth is, the polls called it right in 2007 and they are right now and you and the rest of the yes campaign crooks are heading for humiliation and by Christ you deserve it.

Anonymous said...

for a change you are almost correct Terry, hoisted on your own petard, the polls got it right EVENTUALLY, just two months prior to the election, as I keep pointing out to your addled mind,polls taken 10 months or two years before the event are best written on toilet paper. It is no lie to state as I did that just over two months prior to the 2011 elections ipsos mori was the ONLY poll giving the snp a lead. Try thinking for yourself instead of continually spouting the right wing bullshit rhetoric of your beloved labour party, or better still do something about tackling the abject poverty of the people under your care, rather than cling to some 1970's vision of everlasting power.The british Labour party is dead in Scotland Terry, mourn and move on.Try labour for independence, have you spotted how well they're growing , be afraid be very afraid.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous said...Thursday, December 05, 2013 8:32:00 am

As I stated you are a liar and an arrogant one at that you assumed that no one would bother to check your ridiculous claims and you have been found out. You told us that IPSOS MORI were the only pollsters to give the snp a lead and I have just proved that there were 8 regular pollsters who gave the snp a clear and unequivocal lead for a full 5 weeks before election day. You are arguing on a pile of lies and you have been found out.

The polls today have been consistent for over 2 years and this is not an election it is a referendum and unlike an election it has one single issue at stake, separation, your attempts to link it to an election are pathetic and completely dishonest. You would be better shining up your jackboots for the day after the count so that you are ready for any opportunity to beat up anyone with an English accent, there are bound to be some pensioners who fit the bill for you and the bravehearts.

Anonymous said...

spin spin deceive deceive deflect deflect the labour party way, 5 weeks is not two months you moron,all you do is keep making my case for me, and to cap it all you complete and utter idiot, how do you know that I am not an English pensioner living in Scotland, the yes campaign as well as the snp is multi national and inclusive, show me some proof that it's not, or maybe you can just resort to abuse and empty rhetoric while the people in your council ward trudge to the food bank you sorry sorry apologist for the Tory party.

Anonymous said...

Just saw your Herald posts on the subject of Alex Lunn. Strangely, you are making complete sense in an completely eloquent manner... (I agree completely with your analysis!)

Jim

Anonymous said...

mr x again terry, not playing anymore ? now that I have categorically proved you are a sycophantic liar, you are a disgrace to socialism you and your dying party, how you can sleep at night when you are in bed with the tories, the bnp, the orange order, ukip etc etc, have you no pride at all.
Just Stick your fingers in your ears and keep screaming liar liar pants on fire, like the Anas Sarwar answer to political discourse, it's instructions from London after all.

Byeck said...

Kelly @ 2.56
'.......presidents are not needed'

If that statement includes Fidel, I think you've just buggered your chance of making Freeman of Havana.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous said...Thursday, December 05, 2013 10:16:00 am

Shouting louder doesn't make you right you cretin it makes you look even more dumb. All the polls called it for the snp for 5 weeks before the election which means 2 things, 1/they got it right and 2/ it proves you are a liar, a liar with a mouth like a clowns pocket. That's why you want to talk about English pensioners and food banks isn't it. You have been caught out and shown up for a liar and a shyster.

26% for you in today's poll, slipping in to lost deposit territory, lucky it's not an election eh?.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous said...Thursday, December 05, 2013 6:54:00 pm

Jim you will eventually come to understand that I am a political and literary genius.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous said...Thursday, December 05, 2013 1:50:00 pm

The only thing that you have proved is that you are a liar and a fool.

That is why you want now to talk about anything except your bogus and ridiculous claims about the polls.

26% today and falling soft lad, Sept, would be a good time for you clowns to go on holliday.

Think of the shame and ridicule if you are here when the referendum tsunami hits you, think about me looking for you on here.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Byeck said...
Thursday, December 05, 2013 2:09:00 pm.

Fidel is different from other mortals, you should know that by now.

Anonymous said...

"Jim you will eventually come to understand that I am a political and literary genius."

People say that about James Joyce too, but I still think Ulysses is rubbish.

Jim

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

Anonymous said...Friday, December 06, 2013 11:24:00 am.

A young girl goes to confession and she says to the priest that she had been out with a boy and he had "touched her" the priest asks "where did he touch you my child" and the girls thinks for a minute and then says "on the canal bank father". (James Joyce) Genius or what?.

Anonymous said...

without prejudice:


Is there for honest Poverty
That hings his head, an' a' that;
The coward slave-we pass him by,
We dare be poor for a' that!
For a' that, an' a' that.
Our toils obscure an' a' that,
The rank is but the guinea's stamp,
The Man's the gowd for a' that.

What though on hamely fare we dine,
Wear hoddin grey, an' a that;
Gie fools their silks, and knaves their wine;
A Man's a Man for a' that:
For a' that, and a' that,
Their tinsel show, an' a' that;
The honest man, tho' e'er sae poor,
Is king o' men for a' that.

Ye see yon birkie, ca'd a lord,
Wha struts, an' stares, an' a' that;
Tho' hundreds worship at his word,
He's but a coof for a' that:
For a' that, an' a' that,
His ribband, star, an' a' that:
The man o' independent mind
He looks an' laughs at a' that.

A prince can mak a belted knight,
A marquis, duke, an' a' that;
But an honest man's abon his might,
Gude faith, he maunna fa' that!
For a' that, an' a' that,
Their dignities an' a' that;
The pith o' sense, an' pride o' worth,
Are higher rank than a' that.

Then let us pray that come it may,
(As come it will for a' that,)
That Sense and Worth, o'er a' the earth,
Shall bear the gree, an' a' that.
For a' that, an' a' that,
It's coming yet for a' that,
That Man to Man, the world o'er,
Shall brothers be for a' that.

Cllr Terry Kelly said...

i CAN'T FIGURE WHY THIS HAS BEEN SENT TO ME SO i WON'T COMMENT ON IT.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the poster thought it was a bit closer to genius than a fairly formulaic, misdirection joke? but it comes from the pen of one whom you regularly disparage... just a thought?